«

»

Oct 13

Matt Harvey: About NLDS Game Three (October 12)

I thought I’d looked over the postseason roster with a reasonable amount of attention. I didn’t study the list of Mets’ players like I was looking at a Where’s Waldo? picture, but I spent more time than looking at a passing advertisement on the Metro. Still, I was surprised to see that Erik Goeddel was not only on the roster but he was also going to pitch in Game 3. The Mets were up 13-4. What harm could their be?

Kudos to you Terry Collins for stopping that Dodgers mini rally in its tracks by bringing in Jeurys Familia to finish off the ninth. If Monday taught us anything it’s that by leaving in a guy too long when he’s having a bad night a large lead can quickly turn (it’s like the word should be evaporate, but that’s not the right one either. That’s the announcer word. A more descriptive way to explain that situation to someone is that losing a big lead is like the collective nerves of millions bundled into one big ball of dread, then used as a punching bag by all the joyous Kansas City Royals fans.).

Unless you’re a Royals fan, that was a pretty excruciating inning to watch in the Royals/Astros game. After Carlos Correa and Colby Rasmus helped to put the Astros up 6-2 with changeup destroying swings off of Ryan Madson (as a former Phillies player, I didn’t really feel too much sympathy for him), the Astros chances of winning that game jumped all the way to 97.4% and would peak at 98.4% after Evan Gattis and Carlos Gomez singled. Anyone who watched last postseason knows that there really should be a curve when playing against the Royals. The Astros and their fans had to feel pretty with their chances of winning, but I couldn’t help but think that they needed to get through the eighth quickly. Don’t give the Royals a chance. Well, five straight singles and an error later the game is tied and there still aren’t any outs. Ugh. What a horrible inning.

I hope Correa comes back and plays a heck of a Game 5. He was a monster yesterday at the plate, and you’d hate for one misjudged grounder to help define this postseason for him. Of course, he singled off of Wade Davis in the ninth, a liner right back up the middle, so it doesn’t look like much phases the 21-year old.

The Mets had their own 21-year old phenom back in the day, and while David Wright is now 32, he made one heck of a play in the second inning to save a fourth Dodgers run from scoring. It’s so good to see Wright back playing great baseball. That run probably doesn’t seem like all that much after the final score, but after all the buildup to this game with all the additional drama it wouldn’t of helped to head to the bottom of the second down 4-0. The Mets plating four in the second were huge, especially after loading the bases with no outs. Coming away with a single run there would have been a huge disappointment.

Is anyone else glad that a game was played last night? I was worried that the Mets were going to engage in some petty vendetta against some random Dodgers player and the game would become a vicious slog (as opposed to a viscous slog). I refused to even write about Saturday’s game I was so angry about that Chase Utley flying leg kick to Ruben Tejada. There was absolutely no way to write about the situation on Sunday without coming out saying mean, angry, retaliation type drivel. You know, the perfect time to use Twitter. That Utley has done this type of stuff before and his kick had a Karate Kid, sweep the leg type feel to it, made it all the more deplorable. So, I spent the day with my daughter, enjoyed reliving the Haunted Mansion ride on YouTube (many, many, many times as she can’t get enough of it apparently), and decided to forget all about Utley.

I’m glad Matt Harvey decided to not go after someone too. The best way to solve an issue with thuggery is winning the series. The Mets are one game away from doing that, and focusing in on retribution when Clayton Kershaw is readying to pitch Game 4 is a good way to end your season prematurely.

As for Harvey, he pitched okay. His slider didn’t look particularly sharp, but the boxscore is sort of a liar this morning. He pitched five innings and allowed three runs, two earned, on seven hits while walking two and striking out seven. The seven hits were all singles, and I don’t recall many of those being hit particularly hard. Mostly they were balls just out of the reach of Daniel Murphy or Lucas Duda or some such. He hadn’t pitched since the third of October, so he was working out control and feel. Honestly, I thought he pitched fairly well. When he was missing with his fastball, he was missing just off the plate or like in the case of Justin Turner in the second elevating a fastball letter high instead of at the eyebrow.

He pitched his way out of more trouble in the second with Yasmani Grandal on second after Curtis Granderson’s throwing error and no outs. Harvey pitched out of that, and there were multiple runners on in both the third and fifth that failed to score. I don’t think we’ll consider this one as a masterpiece, but it was serviceable.

Thanks to Granderson, Yoenis Cespedes, and Travis d’Arnaud (and others, just listing the big hits) Harvey enjoyed a sizable lead and Collins didn’t have to head to Bartolo Colon or Jon Niese by the third.

Speaking of Granderson, Cespedes, and d’Arnaud. The trio combined to go 8-for-15 with 11 RBI, eight runs scored, two home runs, and two doubles. Granderson missed a grand slam by about 10 feet as his double in the second with two outs hit at the base of the right-centerfield wall. Huge at-bat.

We all know that playing well in the postseason can leave lasting images, but how about Cespedes crushing that ball into the second deck?

We’ll call that souvenir a keeper.

Below I’ve listed the particulars for yesterday’s game.

Pitches by Type:

##  Pitch Type Count    %
##    Changeup    10 10.3
##   Curveball    10 10.3
##    Fourseam    44 45.4
##    Two-seam    19 19.6
##      Slider    14 14.4

Pitch Type by Inning

##           1 2  3 4 5
## Changeup  0 0  3 5 2
## Curveball 2 3  3 1 1
## Fourseam  6 9 12 8 9
## Two-seam  4 4  6 0 5
## Slider    2 3  4 3 2

Pitches by Outcome:

##                           Changeup Curveball Fourseam Two-seam Slider
## Ball                             3         1       16        8      9
## Called Strike                    3         1        8        2      1
## Foul                             0         2        7        4      1
## Foul Bunt                        0         0        1        0      0
## Foul Tip                         0         1        0        0      1
## In play, no out                  0         0        4        2      0
## In play, out(s)                  1         2        5        0      0
## In play, run(s)                  0         0        0        0      1
## Swinging Strike                  2         2        3        3      1
## Swinging Strike (Blocked)        1         1        0        0      0

Events by Final Pitch of At-Bat

##           Changeup Curveball Fourseam Two-seam Slider
## Flyout           1         0        1        0      0
## Groundout        0         1        3        0      0
## Lineout          0         1        0        0      0
## Pop Out          0         0        1        0      0
## Single           0         0        4        2      1
## Strikeout        2         1        2        1      1
## Walk             0         0        1        0      1

Pitches by Zone Location

##  Zone % Out of Zone % O-Swing % Z-Swing %
##   45.36         54.64     31.11     55.11

Note: Zone % is the number of pitches thrown that were considered in the strike zone; Out of Zone is the number of pitches thrown out of the strike zone; and O-Swing % and Z-Swing % relate to those pitches out of the zone and in the zone that were swung at by batters.

Calculations: I calculated the strike zone based upon the formula provided by Mike Fast in a post for Baseball Prospectus. O-Swing % = Swings at Pitches Out of the Zone / Total Pitches Out of the Zone, and Z-Swing % = Swings at Pitches In the Zone / Total Pitches In the Zone. Fangraphs has a great explanation regarding plate discipline, and I encourage you to read about it if you get a chance. After enjoying my site first, of course.

Pitch Types by Zone Location

##  Pitch Type In Zone Out of Zone O-Swing % Z-Swing %
##    Changeup       5           5     0.600     0.200
##   Curveball       3           7     0.857     0.333
##    Fourseam      23          21     0.286     0.609
##    Two-seam       9          10     0.200     0.778
##      Slider       4          10      0.00     0.500

Strikeouts by Description

##                           Changeup Curveball Fourseam Two-seam Slider
## Foul Tip                         0         0        0        0      1
## Swinging Strike                  2         0        2        1      0
## Swinging Strike (Blocked)        0         1        0        0      0

Standard Batting Lines Against Matt Harvey

##             Batter PA AB H 2B 3B HR K BB HBP SF    BA   OBP   SLG Pitches
##    Adrian  Gonzalez  3  2 1  0  0  0 0  1   0  0 0.500 0.667 0.500      17
##       Andre  Ethier  3  3 2  0  0  0 1  0   0  0 0.667 0.667 0.667      10
##     Brett  Anderson  1  1 0  0  0  0 1  0   0  0 0.000 0.000 0.000       3
##      Carl  Crawford  3  3 1  0  0  0 1  0   0  0 0.333 0.333 0.333      11
##  Enrique  Hernandez  2  2 0  0  0  0 0  0   0  0 0.000 0.000 0.000       5
##    Howard Kendrick  3  3 0  0  0  0 1  0   0  0 0.000 0.000 0.000      10
##      Jimmy  Rollins  3  3 0  0  0  0 2  0   0  0 0.000 0.000 0.000      12
##       Joc  Pederson  1  0 0  0  0  0 0  1   0  0   NaN 1.000   NaN       5
##      Justin  Turner  3  3 2  0  0  0 1  0   0  0 0.667 0.667 0.667      16
##    Yasmani  Grandal  2  2 1  0  0  0 0  0   0  0 0.500 0.500 0.500       8

Pitches Velocities & Movement:

##  Pitch Type  Min Mean  Max Mean Hor Mean Vert CRT Mean Hor CRT Mean Vert
##    Changeup 87.1 88.0 89.2   -8.859     4.192       -8.705         2.608
##   Curveball 82.9 84.7 85.7   0.8530    -3.687        1.083        -5.491
##    Fourseam 94.0 95.8 97.2   -5.662     8.197       -5.294         6.855
##    Two-seam 94.8 96.2 97.6   -6.794     6.246       -6.596         4.849
##      Slider 85.7 90.2 91.6   0.4721     4.134        1.067         2.743

Note: Horizontal movement denotes average distance, in inches, from point of release to home plate (+ moves away from a right-handed batter) while vertical movement is average distance, in inches, from release point to home plate. As measured from the corner of home plate, the x-axis (horizontal) runs to the catcher’s right, the y-axis points at the pitcher, and the z-axis (vertical) runs up and down.

Note 2: The corrected horizontal and vertical are based upon a paper by Alan M. Nathan from the University of Illinois and account for the elimination of both gravity and drag. The corrected averages more accurately reflect the true movement of the baseball.

Average (MPH) Velocity for Pitches by Starters Last Night:

2015-10-13_Matt Harvey_BoxPlot

Below are the pitch locations by both batter stance (left or right) and by pitch type.

Pitch Location by Stance:

2015-10-13_Matt Harvey_Stance

Pitch Location by Pitch Type:

2015-10-13_Matt Harvey_Pitches

Pitch Locations by Batter:

2015-10-13_Matt Harvey_Batters

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>