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Sep 15

Logan Verrett: About Last Night (September 14)

Maybe it’s just me, but I find Justin Bour to be the most fascinating hitter in the Marlins lineup. He’s not the most dangerous, though he certainly has enough to power to make the team pay as he showed in Miami a week ago. How would the Mets attack Bour in this series? If you recall, I spent considerable space discussing how Jacob deGrom and Bartolo Colon both went after Bour with changeups, and I was eager to see how Logan Verrett would pitch him.

Dan Warthen and the Mets have their plan, and it was similar to Miami. In their first at-bat, Verrett started Bour off with a curveball. This was new. I’m intrigued. The location wasn’t particularly shocking. The curve broke outside and at the knees, and considering Verrett had gone after every Marlins lefty on the outside, I figured it would be more of the same. Verrett then returned with another curveball that bounced in the dirt inside. At 1-1, Verrett comes up and in with a fastball that struck the end of Bour’s bat followed by another curveball for 2-2. Verrett then strikes Bour out on a changeup with run low and outside that Bour’s bat whiffed at harmlessly.

Offspeed. Bour saw one changeup, and on that he struck out. In their second at-bat, Bour saw a changeup, a slider, and a curve.

I can’t wait until Tuesday.

Once again, I thought Verrett pitched extremely well. He doesn’t bring overpowering stuff. He might have touched 92 on the radar gun last night, but he mixes his speeds well, and for a guy they basically took a flyer on he’s provided some valuable innings in down the final ¼ of the season. He has five pitches, using his fourseamer, sinker, and changeup almost equally, and while his fourseamer is extremely straight, he throws that sinker enough that he can keep batters honest.

Last night Verrett retired the first nine batters he faced, and he breezed through the first four after Dee Gordon’s leadoff single was quickly eliminated with a Christian Yelich double-play grounder to Juan Uribe. In the fifth, perhaps tiring after having not pitched in 16 days, Verrett allowed singles to Derek Dietrich and J.T. Realmuto, walked Ichiro Suzuki on four straight pitches, and allowed his only run on a soft groundout by Miguel Rojas to Wilmer Flores charging in at short.

After a Justin Nicolino groundout, Verrett’s night was finished after five innings.

If this is the kind of performance the Mets receive from Verrett down the stretch, sign me up. He’s fun to watch pitch. He reminds me of the early aughts when guys like Bobby Jones and Rick Reed pitched. I remember in Colorado Verrett pitched more inside to the Rockies hitters, so I’m curious to see in his next start if he returns to that. He basically stuck to one side of the plate Monday night, going outside to lefties and inside to righties, and he had a few times where he threw consecutive breaking balls to Marlins hitters. I’m not kidding in the least when I say I’m eager for the next start to see if this is how he’ll approach big league hitters. There were four instances where he followed up either a slider or a curve with another breaking pitch. Is it just me?   Help me out here.

The Mets won again last night in case you’re wondering. They’ve now won eight in a row, dating back to their last loss in Miami on September 6, and their magic number to clinch the division is now down to 10. The Dodgers also happened to win, keeping L.A. ½ game up for home field in a potential NLDS matchup.

Oh, and as for Verrett, on the night he threw five innings and allowed one earned run on three hits and one walk while striking out three.

Below I’ve listed the particulars for yesterday’s game.

Pitches by Type:

##  Pitch Type Count    %
##    Changeup    12 19.0
##   Curveball     8 12.7
##    Fourseam    20 31.7
##    Two-seam    17  27.
##      Slider     6 9.52

Pitch Type by Inning

##           1 2 3 4 5
## Changeup  3 4 1 2 2
## Curveball 0 4 0 2 2
## Fourseam  4 5 3 3 5
## Two-seam  4 1 5 1 6
## Slider    1 2 0 1 2

Pitches by Outcome:

##                 Changeup Curveball Fourseam Two-seam Slider
## Ball                   1         4        4        6      1
## Called Strike          2         1        6        4      1
## Foul                   4         2        6        0      2
## Foul Bunt              0         0        1        1      0
## In play, no out        2         0        0        0      1
## In play, out(s)        1         1        2        5      1
## In play, run(s)        0         0        0        1      0
## Swinging Strike        2         0        1        0      0

Events by Final Pitch of At-Bat

##                  Changeup Curveball Fourseam Two-seam Slider
## Flyout                  0         1        1        1      0
## Grounded Into DP        0         0        1        0      0
## Groundout               1         0        0        3      1
## Lineout                 0         0        0        2      0
## Single                  2         0        0        0      1
## Strikeout               1         0        2        0      0
## Walk                    0         0        0        1      0

Pitches by Zone Location

##  Zone % Out of Zone % O-Swing % Z-Swing %
##   46.03         53.97     24.09     36.93

Note: Zone % is the number of pitches thrown that were considered in the strike zone; Out of Zone is the number of pitches thrown out of the strike zone; and O-Swing % and Z-Swing % relate to those pitches out of the zone and in the zone that were swung at by batters.

Calculations: I calculated the strike zone based upon the formula provided by Mike Fast in a post for Baseball Prospectus. O-Swing % = Swings at Pitches Out of the Zone / Total Pitches Out of the Zone, and Z-Swing % = Swings at Pitches In the Zone / Total Pitches In the Zone. Fangraphs has a great explanation regarding plate discipline, and I encourage you to read about it if you get a chance. After enjoying my site first, of course.


Pitch Types by Zone Location

##  Pitch Type In Zone Out of Zone O-Swing % Z-Swing %
##    Changeup       5           7     0.714     0.800
##   Curveball       1           7     0.429      0.00
##    Fourseam      12           8     0.375     0.500
##    Two-seam       6          11     0.182     0.500
##      Slider       5           1      0.00     0.800

Strikeouts by Description

##                 Changeup Fourseam
## Called Strike          0        1
## Swinging Strike        1        1

Standard Batting Lines Against Logan Verrett

##            Batter PA AB H 2B 3B HR K BB HBP SF    BA   OBP   SLG Pitches
##  Christian  Yelich  2  2 0  0  0  0 0  0   0  0 0.000 0.000 0.000       4
##    Derek  Dietrich  2  2 1  0  0  0 0  0   0  0 0.500 0.500 0.500       5
##    Devaris Gordon  2  2 1  0  0  0 0  0   0  0 0.500 0.500 0.500      11
##     Ichiro  Suzuki  2  1 0  0  0  0 0  1   0  0 0.000 0.500 0.000       6
##    Jacob Realmuto  2  2 1  0  0  0 1  0   0  0 0.500 0.500 0.500      13
##       Justin  Bour  2  2 0  0  0  0 1  0   0  0 0.000 0.000 0.000       8
##   Justin  Nicolino  2  2 0  0  0  0 1  0   0  0 0.000 0.000 0.000       5
##      Martin  Prado  2  2 0  0  0  0 0  0   0  0 0.000 0.000 0.000       6
##      Miguel  Rojas  2  2 0  0  0  0 0  0   0  0 0.000 0.000 0.000       5

Pitches Velocities & Movement:

##  Pitch Type  Min Mean  Max Mean Hor Mean Vert CRT Mean Hor CRT Mean Vert
##    Changeup 82.1 83.3 84.6   -7.938     1.911       -7.716        0.5860
##   Curveball 75.2 77.2 80.9    1.057    -3.638        1.277        -5.175
##    Fourseam 88.2 90.3 92.5   -4.263     9.566       -3.890         8.404
##    Two-seam 87.0 89.4 90.8   -7.836     6.055       -7.814         4.741
##      Slider 82.6 83.2 83.9  0.01600    -1.524       0.6936        -3.051

Note: Horizontal movement denotes average distance, in inches, from point of release to home plate (+ moves away from a right-handed batter) while vertical movement is average distance, in inches, from release point to home plate. As measured from the back point of home plate, the x-axis (horizontal) runs to the catcher’s right, the y-axis points at the pitcher, and the z-axis (vertical) runs upward.

Note 2: The corrected horizontal and vertical are based upon a paper by Alan M. Nathan from the University of Illinois nd account for the elimination of both gravity and drag. The corrected averages more accurately reflect the true movement of the baseball.


Average (MPH) Velocity for Pitches by Starters Last Night:

2015-09-15_Logan Verrett_BoxPlot

Below are the pitch locations by both batter stance (left or right) and by pitch type.

Pitch Location by Stance:

2015-09-15_Logan Verrett_Stance

Pitch Location by Pitch Type:

2015-09-15_Logan Verrett_Pitches

Pitch Locations by Batter:

2015-09-15_Logan Verrett_Batters

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