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Sep 24

Bartolo Colon: About Last Night (September 23)

How you feel about the last few days probably gets into whether you’re a glass half empty or glass half full type of person. In other words, if you’re not a Mets fan you probably see this series against Atlanta—and this home stand in general where the team went 3-6 and lost three straight series by winning the opening game and then dropping the next two—as a wasted opportunity. Still. The team is up 6 ½ on the Nationals and there are 10 games left. Life is still pretty good. If you’re a Mets fan, you see this home stand and this series against Atlanta as a wasted opportunity. If the Mets figure out a way to win a couple more of these games, they’d have wrapped up the division by now.

Wednesday night was definitely one of those wasted opportunity games. As the Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez decided to sit Freddie Freeman, Bartolo Colon motored through a toothless Atlanta lineup for most of the night. He breezed through the first four innings on 32 pitches, throwing absolutely nothing but fastballs. Seriously. This isn’t me trying to be clever. Colon didn’t throw one off-speed or breaking ball through the first five innings because he didn’t have to. He didn’t have time. The Braves jumped on Colon’s offerings, grounded out (seven of the first eight outs were groundouts) for the most part, and Ruben Tejada made a lot of running throws to Lucas Duda at first.

Oh, there was this whole David Wright wide throw to Duda tag play too. How’s that for expert analysis?

Colon had a no-hitter going into the fifth when Jace Peterson hit a slow grounder to Tejada that he could neither run in fast enough nor throw hard enough to nab Peterson at first, and if there were any signs that things were going to go bad a few innings later it wasn’t in this inning. Cameron Maybin popped out and the inning was over. Mets up 2-0. We could all get back to stressing over that Yankees and Blue Jays game.

Colon worked out of trouble in the sixth after allowing a leadoff walk to Michael Bourn, and with runners on first and third and one out he got Hector Olivera to fly out shallowly to Michael Conforto in left. Colon could escape the seventh, however, as he allowed singles to A.J. Pierzynski and Andrelton Simmons (there’s a changeup sighting!), and with one out Maybin’s single past a diving Duda loaded the bases and ended Colon’s night. A Bourn single off of Addison Reed scored the Braves first run, and then Freeman doubled, plating two. Freeman took all of two at-bats in this game and drove in five runs. If you’re good at math that means in two at-bats last night Freeman equaled the run production of the entire Mets team over the last two games.

Wasted opportunities.

Oh, and Freeman waited until now to screw with the Mets again. I knew it was just a matter of time.

The Orioles beat the Nationals for the second straight night, so the magic number to clinch the division is down to five. It’s slowly ticking away, and it’s down to the Mets winning the next two series on the road against Cincinnati and Philadelphia. It really is that simple. Win games. Win series. Win the division.

For Colon, his night ended with 6 1/3 innings pitches and he allowed three earned runs on five hits and a walk with one strikeout. He struck out Williams Perez, the opposing pitcher, so technically it doesn’t count as a real strikeout. It was more like a K with training wheels. It’s cool, though. If he didn’t strike him out, I would have had to edit my script’s output a little to fix an obvious bug in my code on null returns. Should I do that? I should. Should the Mets win games? They should.

We both have work to do.

Below I’ve listed the particulars for yesterday’s game.

Pitches by Type:

##  Pitch Type Count    %
##    Changeup     3 4.00
##    Fourseam    12 16.0
##    Two-seam    56 74.7
##      Slider     4 5.33

Pitch Type by Inning

##          1 2 3 4  5  6 7
## Changeup 0 0 0 0  0  1 2
## Fourseam 3 1 2 1  1  4 0
## Two-seam 6 6 8 5 11 13 7
## Slider   0 0 0 0  0  3 1

Pitches by Outcome:

##                 Changeup Fourseam Two-seam Slider
## Ball                   0        3       16      1
## Ball In Dirt           1        0        0      0
## Called Strike          0        7       12      0
## Foul                   0        1        6      0
## In play, no out        2        1        2      0
## In play, out(s)        0        0       17      1
## Swinging Strike        0        0        3      2

Events by Final Pitch of At-Bat

##           Changeup Fourseam Two-seam Slider
## Flyout           0        0        4      1
## Groundout        0        0       10      0
## Lineout          0        0        1      0
## Pop Out          0        0        1      0
## Sac Bunt         0        0        1      0
## Single           2        1        2      0
## Strikeout        0        0        1      0
## Walk             0        1        0      0

Pitches by Zone Location

##  Zone % Out of Zone % O-Swing % Z-Swing %
##   53.33         46.67     30.00     39.38

Note: Zone % is the number of pitches thrown that were considered in the strike zone; Out of Zone is the number of pitches thrown out of the strike zone; and O-Swing % and Z-Swing % relate to those pitches out of the zone and in the zone that were swung at by batters.

Calculations: I calculated the strike zone based upon the formula provided by Mike Fast in a post for Baseball Prospectus. O-Swing % = Swings at Pitches Out of the Zone / Total Pitches Out of the Zone, and Z-Swing % = Swings at Pitches In the Zone / Total Pitches In the Zone. Fangraphs has a great explanation regarding plate discipline, and I encourage you to read about it if you get a chance. After enjoying my site first, of course.


Pitch Types by Zone Location

##  Pitch Type In Zone Out of Zone O-Swing % Z-Swing %
##    Changeup       1           2     0.500      1.00
##    Fourseam       9           3      0.00     0.222
##    Two-seam      30          26     0.385     0.600
##      Slider       0           4     0.750       NaN

Strikeouts by Description

##                 Two-seam
## Swinging Strike        1

Standard Batting Lines Against Bartolo Colon

##             Batter PA AB H 2B 3B HR K BB HBP SF    BA   OBP   SLG Pitches
##    A.J.  Pierzynski  3  3 1  0  0  0 0  0   0  0 0.333 0.333 0.333       7
##  Andrelton  Simmons  3  3 1  0  0  0 0  0   0  0 0.333 0.333 0.333       8
##     Cameron  Maybin  3  3 1  0  0  0 0  0   0  0 0.333 0.333 0.333       6
##     Hector  Olivera  3  3 0  0  0  0 0  0   0  0 0.000 0.000 0.000      10
##      Jace  Peterson  3  3 1  0  0  0 0  0   0  0 0.333 0.333 0.333      10
##      Michael  Bourn  2  1 0  0  0  0 0  1   0  0 0.000 0.500 0.000      12
##      Nick  Markakis  3  3 1  0  0  0 0  0   0  0 0.333 0.333 0.333       8
##       Nick  Swisher  3  3 0  0  0  0 0  0   0  0 0.000 0.000 0.000      10
##     Williams  Perez  2  1 0  0  0  0 1  0   0  1 0.000 0.000 0.000       4

Pitches Velocities & Movement:

##  Pitch Type  Min Mean  Max Mean Hor Mean Vert CRT Mean Hor CRT Mean Vert
##    Changeup 81.3 81.6 81.8   -7.840     3.277       -7.810         1.799
##    Fourseam 87.9 89.5 91.1   -4.007     7.433       -4.075         6.277
##    Two-seam 84.5 87.8 90.4   -8.668     3.767       -8.576         2.428
##      Slider 62.1 77.1 82.9    2.164     4.562        2.763         3.177

Note: Horizontal movement denotes average distance, in inches, from point of release to home plate (+ moves away from a right-handed batter) while vertical movement is average distance, in inches, from release point to home plate. As measured from the back point of home plate, the x-axis (horizontal) runs to the catcher’s right, the y-axis points at the pitcher, and the z-axis (vertical) runs upward.

Note 2: The corrected horizontal and vertical are based upon a paper by Alan M. Nathan from the University of Illinois nd account for the elimination of both gravity and drag. The corrected averages more accurately reflect the true movement of the baseball.


Average (MPH) Velocity for Pitches by Starters Last Night:

2015-09-24_Bartolo Colon_BoxPlot

Below are the pitch locations by both batter stance (left or right) and by pitch type.

Pitch Location by Stance:

2015-09-24_Bartolo Colon_Stance

Pitch Location by Pitch Type:

2015-09-24_Bartolo Colon_Pitches

Pitch Locations by Batter:

2015-09-24_Bartolo Colon_Batters

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